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The Windmill of the Housing Market in 2019 | What are the Op(3)
The closing date of 2018 is just around the corner. This year, many investors feel that the "bitter winter" is coming.——
Trump adopted a tough trade policy, playing 200 billion tariff cards against China and waging an unprecedented trade war in human history.
U.S. stocks fell sharply, with the Dow down more than 3%, and all 11 major sectors of the S& P 500 index closed down.
The Shanghai Stock Index fell below the fused bottom of 2638 in early 2016, and the market once again experienced the tragedy of 1000 shares falling and stopping.
Turkish lira's "falling" triggered global market shocks, and many emerging market countries'currencies plunged frequently.
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in November, the sales prices of commodity housing in the first-tier cities declined annually, while those in the second-tier and third-tier cities declined. There is a voice that China's real estate has entered a cold winter...
 
With 2019 approaching, where should real estate investment go?
 
The Windmill of the Housing Market in 2019 | What are the Opportunities for Investing in Real Estate? How to break the situation in turbulence?
 
Domestic Real Estate Market: Stability and Change
 
1. Market regulation will be more stringent
Since the opening of real estate market regulation in 2016, the number and intensity of regulation and control policies have been increasing all over the country. In 2018, it has also clearly released various signals that "real estate regulation will not be loosened in the short term".
 
Local governments will continue to adhere to the policy of "no speculation in housing", resolutely curb speculation in housing, and take measures to ensure the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
 
2. Housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities may fall
At present, the new and second-hand housing market in the first-tier cities in China has cooled down comprehensively, and the growth rate of the second-tier and third-tier hot cities has also fallen. Even many experts in the industry said that the inflection point of the domestic property market has arrived, the decline trend of house prices is clear, the most obvious sign is that in 2018, the "gold, nine silver and ten" of the real estate market is obviously inadequate, many housing prices have loosened, and buyers have a strong wait-and-see mood.
 
With the stagnation of the current housing inventory, the third and fourth-tier cities have basically completed the initial inventory task. In the past of the sales peak season, the real estate market has begun to cool down, and even some cities have ushered in the provisions of sales restrictions. Therefore, when these cities begin to cool down dramatically and speculative tenants'arbitrage space decreases, there will be the possibility of selling and house prices falling.
 
The Windmill of the Housing Market in 2019 | What are the Opportunities for Investing in Real Estate? How to break the situation in turbulence?
 
North American Real Estate Market: New Opportunities from Emerging Markets
 
1. Housing prices continue to rise
Overall house prices in the United States have risen by 15% in the past decade. NAHB Real Estate Market Index in the United States has been well above the benchmark demarcation line of 50, which also shows that developers have better expectations for the future, or increase real estate investment. Judging from the current data indicators, the U.S. economy is expected to continue its current strong momentum in the first half of 2019, which will drive the sustained development of the housing market.
 
The Windmill of the Housing Market in 2019 | What are the Opportunities for Investing in Real Estate? How to break the situation in turbulence?
U.S. House Price Index
 
2. Demand for housing in the "18-Hour City" will increase
Unlike New York's bustling metropolis, which runs 24 hours a day, some "18-hour cities" (Seattle, Dallas, Portland, etc.) are becoming more and more popular among young Americans because they have the same job opportunities, modern lifestyles and good prospects as New York.
 
With the influx of a large number of talents, housing demand in these cities may usher in a new wave of growth, which will surely lead to the growth of local housing prices and rent returns.